New poll from Pennsylvania should send Republicans panicking

Dem Gains in CD18 Special

Monday, March 12, 2018
Voters divided on steel tariffs, but negligible impact on vote

West Long Branch, NJ – Democrat Conor Lamb has taken a lead over Republican Rick Saccone in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. The Monmouth University Poll finds PA18 voters are divided on whether recently announced steel tariffs will help or hurt the local economy, but very few say this policy will influence their vote in Tuesday’s election to fill the open House seat.

Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. Another 1% opt for a third party candidate and 3% are undecided. Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage.
This marks a turnaround from last month’s Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models – 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.

“This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots. Lamb seems to have connected with them,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Lamb earns a net positive 53% favorable and 33% unfavorable rating from likely voters in PA18. Opinion is somewhat more divided on Saccone at 47% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Fully 95% of self-identified Democrats support Lamb (to 5% for Saccone), while 88% of self-identified Republicans support Saccone (to 9% for Lamb). Independents prefer Lamb by a 51% to 45% margin.

Comments

  • This was the district in which the orange menace won by 20 points.
    Buyer's remorse anyone?
  • It is imperative that the Democratic Party organization get off their asses and get out the vote. Door to door contact will be much better than irritating robo calls.
    In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion! Nice try though.
  • 20180308_061530

    NaziRacistAssholes a.k.a AMERICAS ISIS
    (Harpo)(IdiotFreeEnvironment898Days)


  • It looks like the Democrats have this one in the bag.
  • BadBoyz said:

    20180308_061530

    What I dont understand is why the USA uses RED for the rep states and blue for the dem states......everywhere else in the world RED is always connected with the left
  • BadBoyz said:

    20180308_061530

    What I dont understand is why the USA uses RED for the rep states and blue for the dem states......everywhere else in the world RED is always connected with the left
    I think it was started by CBS some time ago, and I suspect that those designations were made precisely so that the American version of "left" wouldn't be lumped together with the real left.
    Sin lies only in hurting others unnecessarily. All other "sins" are invented nonsense.

    -Robert A. Heinlein
  • edited March 13
    Jean said:

    It looks like the Democrats have this one in the bag.

    The Dems also have a special talent to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory so I am only cautiously optimistic.
  • Capricorn said:

    Jean said:

    It looks like the Democrats have this one in the bag.

    The Dems also have a special talent to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory so I am only cautiously optimistic.
    Me, too. The Dem candidates always get more votes than the Repubs, but due to gaming the system through gerrymandering the Repubs win more congressional districts.
    Sin lies only in hurting others unnecessarily. All other "sins" are invented nonsense.

    -Robert A. Heinlein
  • It is so very close, close enough that the Republicans can easily skew the results.
    In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion! Nice try though.
  • It is a tie.
  • 11:24 pm EST, Lamb ahead by 824 votes.
    In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion! Nice try though.
  • A Republican would never concede when defeated.
    Also, I wonder how many ethnic minority votes were suppressed.
  • Another referendum against Trump went the Democratic way.
    Even the Republicans are rejecting the racist POS.
  • Harpo and Rambler nowhere to be seen. Too ashamed and embarrassed?
  • Thank you Conner Lamb for showing that even Republicans can't stomach Trump.

    Trump has campaigned for two Republicans recently and both lost to Democrats in heavily red states. Please, do some more campaigning.
    In order to insult me, I must first value your opinion! Nice try though.

  • Trump is STEAMING. The GOP & conservative groups spent $10 million plus on the PA-18 special election - money that could have gone to his legal defense fund. -Hayden Black
    I hope that someone is keeping a list of things we need to do to unfuck this country.
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